Delta Variant And Deaths In 50+ Individuals



Delta Variant And Deaths In 50+ Individuals

Today we will focus on the impact of delta variant on the individuals aged 50 and over. We will take the data from the UK’s technical report about the variants. (See math at the end of this description.)

Buy me a coffee 🙂 https://www.buymeacoffee.com/DrMobeenSyed
Become my patron: https://www.patreon.com/mobeensyed?fan_landing=true
Looking to support my educational work? Donate here: https://paypal.me/mobeensyed?locale.x=en_US

UK vaccination status
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996699/25_June_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_DELTA.pdf

Low vaccination rates in ethnic minorities
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccinationratesinpeopleaged70yearsandoverbysociodemographiccharacteristicengland/8december2020to12april2021

UK ethnicity and age data
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/demographics/age-groups/latest

Articles
Revealed: Just 26 fully vaccinated people have died with Indian COVID variant
https://news.yahoo.com/revealed-fully-vaccinated-died-delta-indian-variant-coronavirus-102623618.html

Why The Delta Variant Matters If You’re Vaccinated Or Unvaccinated
https://gothamist.com/news/why-the-delta-variant-matters-if-youre-vaccinated-or-unvaccinated

Nearly all COVID deaths in US now among unvaccinated; Sydney tightens pandemic restrictions amid outbreak: Latest COVID-19 updates
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/06/24/covid-vaccine-delta-variant-california-fda-cdc-missouri-hotspot/5329714001/

Israel says the Delta variant is infecting vaccinated people, representing as many as 50% of new cases. But they’re less severe.
https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-50-of-delta-variant-cases-vaccinated-severe-2021-6

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/06/24/covid-vaccine-delta-variant-california-fda-cdc-missouri-hotspot/5329714001/

#drbeen #koolbeens #COVID

Data
Delta 50+
Cases since Feb 1
Cases in the cohort that received 2 doses: 3,546
Deaths: 50 (0.06%)

Unvaccinated: 976
Deaths: 38 (3.9%)

Consider that received second dose can still be a risky time.
Absolute risk reduction: 3.9-0.06 = 3.84%
Relative Risk = Risk in vaccinated/risk in placebo = 0.06/3.9 = 0.015
Efficacy: 1 – Relative Risk = 1 – 0.015 = 0.985 = 98%

Cases in the cohort that received 1 dose: 3,953
Deaths: 18 (0.45%)

Unvaccinated: 976
Deaths: 38 (3.9%)

Consider that received second dose can still be a risky time.
Absolute risk reduction: 3.9-0.45 = 3.45%
Relative Risk = Risk in vaccinated/risk in placebo = 0.45/3.9 = 0.12
Efficacy: 1 – Relative Risk = 1 – 0.12 = 0.88 = 88%

This is 2011 data (2021 is not available to me yet.)
Vaccination breakdown in 50+ individuals in UK
UK population: ~58 Millions in 2011
34% (19,385,844) were 50+
White British Individuals: 18,164,882 (93.7%)
All others: 1,220,962

Extrapolation for the 10 Million
50+ (34%) = 340,000
Whites (93% of 340,000) = 316,200
All the rest: 23,800

Extrapolated 50+ data in 2021
Total 50+ population = 19,725,844
White (93%): 18,345,034
Rest (7%) = 1,380,810

Vaccination rates in 50+
Whites: 93.7% = 17,244,331
Others: 75% = 1,035,607

Total 50+ vaccinated = 18,279,938 total deaths: cases: 9,571 deaths: 68 (0.71%)
Total 50+ vaccinated = 18,279,938 total deaths (after second dose): cases: 3,546 deaths: 50 (1.5%)
Total 50+ unvaccinated: 1,445,906 total deaths: cases: 976 deaths 38 (3.89%)

source