The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 has entered an intriguing stage where there’s just one spot left for the playoffs, with three teams competing. Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Chennai Super Kings and Lucknow Super Giants are the three sides who are still in contention, though the KL Rahul-led side is only mathematically in the race, with their Net Run Rate making it nearly impossible for them to go through. However, the opportunity is quite realistic for both CSK and RCB, who are set to square off on Saturday.

The Super Kings, already sitting on 14 points, have a slightly better chance of going through, courtesy of their points tally and a superior Net Run Rate of +0.528. The Royal Challengers, on the other hand, have 12 points in their kitty ahead of the final league match of the campaign. While the weather has also painted a glooming picture for the match, it would be CSK who go through if the match gets abandoned. But, even if the match goes on and RCB beat CSK, they aren’t guaranteed progression:

RCB and CSK IPL 2024 Playoffs Scenario:

The Faf du Plessis-led side need to beat CSK by a margin of at least 18 runs, in a case where they bat first and put 200 runs on the board. If RCB win by 17 runs or less, in the same scenario, they would be knocked out on the basis on an inferior Net Run Rate.

In the case where RCB are batting second, they would need to reach the target with 11 balls to spare, in a case where they are chasing a target of 201 runs.

Hence, the qualification scenario isn’t as simple and straightforward for RCB, with the current situation giving CSK a slightly better chance of sealing a top 4 berth. For the Super Kings to qualify, they can afford a narrow defeat even if they fail to win the match.

IPL 2024 Playoffs Scenario Where Neither RCB, Nor CSK Go Through

There’s another scenario, though quite unrealistic, that would see neither RCB, nor CSK qualify for the playoffs. If Lucknow Super Giants win their last league match of the season, against Mumbai Indians, by an incredibly big margin and take their NRR above RCB’s, they will stand a chance to go through.

If the KL Rahul-led side does get the win and take their NRR above RCB’s, then they would need to see the Bengaluru vs Chennai match end in the favour of Virat Kohli‘s team, but with the narrowest of margins.