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Canada’s Liberal party will choose a replacement for Justin Trudeau on Sunday, with the new prime minister facing the immediate task of fighting a trade war with Donald Trump.
Liberal party members started voting on February 26 and have until Sunday afternoon to cast a ballot for Trudeau’s successor. The new leader is expected to be announced in Ottawa, the nation’s capital, between 5pm and 7pm.
Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has the lead over former finance minister Chrystia Freeland in a contest that comes down to who is the best leader to take on Trump.
The US president’s threatened 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports and his promise to annex the country have sparked a wave of patriotism that has reinvigorated the Liberal leadership contest.
For more than a year, the Conservative party and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre were expected to win a majority government easily in the next election, but Trump’s hostility has changed the dynamics of the race.
“It’s clear that Carney has raised the most money and has the most support, so he’s likely to win,” said Semra Sevi, who teaches political science at the University of Toronto.
This week, Freeland told the Financial Times that Trump’s belligerence towards Canada had restored the party’s popularity.
“I take my country’s sovereignty extremely seriously,” Freeland said on the Rachman Review podcast. “Our sovereignty is not negotiable and Canadians are incredibly united about that.”
An Angus Reid Institute poll on Wednesday found that 43 per cent of Canadians believed Carney would be the best leader to take on Trump in a hypothetical race against Poilievre, who had 34 per cent. Freeland polled at 36 per cent versus Poilievre’s 33 per cent.
While the Trump factor looms large, so too is getting Canada’s economy back on track. Freeland has proposed turning the country into “an energy superpower, from powering our grids with hydro to exporting [liquefied natural gas] to our allies”.
Carney has made similar promises for a big infrastructure programme. “By accelerating decision-making on major projects, Canada will be able to lower costs, attract more investment, create more jobs and build the strongest economy in the G7,” he said.
Trudeau resigned in early January after nearly a decade in power as he faced poor polling and party frictions.
Freeland, who stood down as deputy prime minister in December, had been increasingly at odds with Trudeau over economic policy and the government’s management of a cost of living crisis.
But whoever becomes Canada’s next prime minister may only be in the role for a short time, as an election may be called for late April or May.
If Freeland wins, her spokesperson said, she will call a meeting of provincial premiers, business leaders and union heads to seek a mandate as Canada’s leader or ask if they prefer an early election as the best path forward.
Carney has indicated that he prefers an early election. His spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment.
Under the constitution, Canada must hold an election some time before October.
The Liberal party said nearly 400,000 members had signed up to vote. Canada’s governor-general must swear in the country’s new leader, but it is not clear when the official transition will take place as it is up to the prime minister to decide.
Canada’s parliament has been suspended until March 24, and smaller parties have threatened to support a no-confidence motion by the Conservatives that could topple the minority Liberal government once parliament resumes.
The Liberal leadership contest has not been without controversy.
Candidates needed to pay C$350,000 (US$240,000) to run, and members have complained about the strict voter registration process while the party disqualified two leadership hopefuls.
