Can Mark Carney win an election in Canada and a trade war with the US?

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For more than a decade it has been one of the most-asked questions in Canadian politics: will Mark Carney be the next prime minister? On Sunday, Liberal party members gave their answer by choosing the former central banker as their leader to replace Justin Trudeau.

In his new role, the former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor faces two immediate tasks. Can he save the Liberal party from electoral annihilation, and can he negotiate a trade truce with Donald Trump?

With an election due by October, polls show the Liberals narrowing the gap with the opposition Conservatives to 8 percentage points with Carney at the helm.

Analysts say part of the reason is the US president. Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada and make it the 51st state as well as impose devastating tariffs.

For more than a year the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre has led the polls by at least 20 points over Trudeau. But in the face of Trump’s attacks on Canada, Carney has clawed back the Liberals’ relevance during a period of renewed Canadian patriotism.

“Carney brings a fresh face to the dynamic,” said Dimitry Anastakis, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. “He can represent a form of change within the Liberal party that may be convincing enough for Canadians to overcome their fatigue with a 10-year-old government.”

To remain prime minister for longer than a few months, Carney will need to convince the broader public, not just Liberal voters, that he is the man for the job. He is likely to call a federal election soon after he is sworn in this week.

The son of teachers, Carney was raised in Edmonton, Alberta, and went on to graduate from Harvard and Oxford universities, the latter as a Rhodes scholar. At Oxford he met his wife Diana Fox, a British economist.

John Manley, who was finance minister in Jean Chrétien’s Liberal government, said that before approving Carney’s appointment as Bank of Canada deputy governor in 2003 he asked him why he wanted to be a bureaucrat in Ottawa after working on Wall Street.

“Carney said he wanted his daughters to grow up as Canadians, that he has earned enough money. He also said ‘I believe in public service’, and I think that’s been the measure of his character,” Manley said.

Carney has returned to this theme at big moments during his career. In what became known as the “tragedy of the horizon” speech in 2015, Carney warned that climate change would lead to financial crises and falling living standards unless companies did more to mitigate its impact.

In his 2022 book Values: Building a Better World for All, Carney argued that financial markets needed to maximise value for the greatest number, not an elite few.

Carney’s career has not been without controversy. As the first non-British person to be governor of the Bank of England, he found himself embroiled in the bitter Brexit debate after warning of the economic impact of leaving the EU.

Vote Leave campaigners criticised Carney for what they claimed was political interference. Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg called for him to resign from the central bank.

Carney’s management style, meanwhile, has been described as confrontational.

“Shouty? Look, I . . . try to maintain high standards within the institution and my style as a whole is to delegate whenever possible,” Carney told the Financial Times in December 2015. He did not agree to an interview with the FT ahead of this election.

Carney’s financial background has also attracted criticism.

He spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs in New York, London and Tokyo. But it was his time as chair at Brookfield Asset Management, which oversees $1tn in assets, that has been a focus for Conservative party attacks.

At a time of renewed patriotism, Brookfield’s decision to relocate its headquarters from Canada to New York while Carney was chair has come under fire. On Sunday Poilievre, the Conservative leader, posted a link to an FT investigation into Brookfield’s opaque real estate portfolio.

Robert Asselin, a former economic adviser to Trudeau’s government, said Carney’s economic expertise is beyond doubt. The question is his political appeal, he said. “Electorally, he still faces a significant uphill battle.”