Cruz says Republicans face midterms ‘bloodbath’ if tariffs trigger recession

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Republican senator Ted Cruz warned of a potential “bloodbath” for his party in the 2026 midterm elections if Donald Trump’s tariffs send the US economy into recession.

The senator from Texas also predicted a “terrible” fate for the world’s largest economy should a full-blown trade war erupt and Trump’s tariffs, as well as any retaliatory measures on US goods, stay in place long-term.

Typically a Trump ally, Cruz’s comments on his Verdict podcast on Friday were the starkest warning from a member of the president’s party since his “liberation day” levies kicked off the global market rout.

Republican lawmakers have begun to worry about the effects of Trump’s tariffs on the economy and their party’s prospects for keeping control of both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. Their concerns grew as Americans watched about $5.4tn of stock market capitalisation evaporate over a two-day Wall Street rout.

On Thursday, Republican Chuck Grassley introduced a bill in the Senate, alongside a Democrat, to reassert Congressional control of tariff policy. Under the proposed law, new levies would expire in 60 days unless approved by Congress, and there would be a mechanism for lawmakers to cancel tariffs at any point.

Support for the bill grew on Friday as Republican senators Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, Jerry Moran and Thom Tillis signed on as co-sponsors. The bill is likely more symbolic than anything, but points to increasing discord within the Republican party as lawmakers worry about the effects of the trade policy on constituencies reliant on exports — and on re-election hopes.

There were already signs of voter discontent this week, when an Elon Musk-backed conservative lost a state supreme court seat in Wisconsin to the liberal candidate. Republicans also underperformed their 2024 results in two special House elections in Florida.

If Trump’s and any retaliatory tariffs remain in place long-term and push the US into “a recession, particularly a bad recession, 2026 in all likelihood politically would be a bloodbath. You would face a Democrat House, and you might even face a Democrat Senate,” Cruz said.

Despite the 53-47 Republican majority in the Senate, “if we’re in the middle of a recession and people are hurting badly, they punish the party in power”, Cruz said.

The Canada-born Texan did not share the president’s assessment that the tariffs would usher in “a booming economy”. Instead, Cruz said there could be “an enormous economic boom” only if the US and any retaliating countries slash their duty rates.

But if “every other country on earth” hits the US with retaliatory tariffs and Trump’s so-called reciprocal levies remain in place, “that is a terrible outcome”, the senator warned.

If the confrontation between the US and its trading partners escalates into a full-blown trade war, “it would destroy jobs here at home, and do real damage to the US economy”, Cruz said. It would also “have a powerful upward impact on inflation”.