Lesson learned: The Ottawa Senators are a machine to be reckoned with following last night’s poor over/under call.

To kick off the weekend, we’re going to change things up a little bit and pursue a goalie prop bet.

That comes in an intriguing affair on the ice. For tonight’s NHL Network broadcast, the Winnipeg Jets are hosting the Dallas Stars in an enthralling matchup between the two teams with the most points in the Western Conference.

Winnipeg is tied for the most points (94) in all of hockey with its 45-17-4 record, and Dallas sits right behind at 42-20-2 (86). The name of the game for both sides has been offense, as they’re also the two highest-scoring teams in the West. The Jets plate 3.47 goals per game, while the Stars are lighting the lamp 3.42 times a contest.

That being said, we can probably expect healthy offense from each side, but for the purposes of this bet, we’re only concerned with getting recurring activity from the Jets’ offense.

The idea is to zero in on Jake Oettinger’s goalie saves prop in this one, which sits at over/under 23.5. Given the opponent and his own club’s tendency to allow a sizable number of shots, we’ll be seeking the over in saves from the Dallas goaltender to pick up this victory.

One key component that can aid our cause is the fact that the Stars allow 27.5 shots per game, and being matched up against a juggernaut like the Jets, we’ll hope that average is either met or exceeded. Given how Winnipeg is the best home team in all of hockey — they are 24-5-4, after all — it seems more likely than not that the offense will be on its game.

If that’s the case, there should be plenty of saves to be made for Oettinger.

But will he play well enough to hang around for the entire game opposite the league’s best? His track record bouncing back certainly suggests so.

Oettinger allowed five goals last time out — the 21st such instance of his five-year career in which he was tagged for that amount or more. In all but two of the previous 20 ensuing outings, he limited the opponent to fewer goals and notched a 2.30 goals-against average in the process.

Furthermore, the 2017 first-round pick stopped at least 25 shots in 14 of those 20 games with a save percentage of higher than .920. Oettinger has been crafting another sensational campaign this year, and we can trust him to deliver this evening.

Pick: Over 23.5 saves (-132, FanDuel)

NHL Betting Record: 34-28-3, -0.75 unit
Over/Unders: 20-22-3
Goalie props: 14-6

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

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