It’s really difficult to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes and company are one victory away from winning a third consecutive Super Bowl, which has never been done.
Since this run began with the first game of the 2022 regular season, the Chiefs have won 49 games and lost 11 games.
One of those losses, the most recent one, was a 38-0 defeat at Denver in the regular-season finale four weeks ago when Kansas City didn’t play many of its key players because it was set as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
But the Philadelphia Eagles, the team standing between the Chiefs and history in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday in the Caesars Superdome, are built to beat the two-time champions.
Other teams have looked the part, not just going into a game against the Chiefs but even deep into the fourth quarter of the game. But the champions have won an NFL-record 17 consecutive one-score games, including 12 this season.
The primary lesson there is one of the keys to beating the Chiefs is to not give Mahomes the ball late in the game needing just one score to beat you. He is going for his own personal three-peat as Super Bowl MVP and his fourth overall after winning the award for the first time five years ago.
Mahomes brought Kansas City back from a three-point deficit in both the fourth quarter and overtime against the 49ers in last year’s Super Bowl.
Two years ago against the Eagles, Mahomes drove his team 62 yards in 14 plays to a winning field goal with 11 seconds left, giving Kansas City a 38-35 victory.
And Mahomes has a long list of other examples of last-minute scoring drives to produce improbable victories.
But beating Mahomes and the Chiefs isn’t as simple as building a lead of more than a touchdown late in the game. Mahomes won his first Super Bowl MVP by directing drives that produced three touchdowns in the final 6:13 of the game, turning a 20-10 deficit into a 31-20 victory over the 49ers five years ago.
The only blueprint for beating Mahomes and the Chiefs—especially in a Super Bowl—has to cover a full 60 minutes (or more).
Philadelphia has enough history against Kansas City to give it confidence, though San Francisco presumably had a similar feeling going into last year’s rematch.
The key is not only defending Mahomes but also constraining him—playing exceptional complementary football in which the offense and special teams reduce the amount of time, and therefore the number of plays, as well as the starting field position that Mahomes has to work with.
Of course the Chiefs are a lot more than just Mahomes and the offense. Philadelphia also has to compete with a very good defense and special teams.
The addition of Saquon Barkley has given the Eagles the most explosive running game in the NFL. Barkley averages more than five yards per carry and gives the NFC champions the ability to move the ball consistently, run the clock and keep Mahomes on the sideline.
But moving methodically and using up the clock isn’t enough to beat the Chiefs. In the Super Bowl two years ago, Philadelphia outgained the Chiefs 417-340 and possessed the ball for more than 36 minutes.
And they lost.
The bottom line is Mahomes routinely does more with less. He can have the ball for less time and fewer plays, leading to fewer yards, and still produce at least one more point.
Philadelphia can use Barkley and Hurts to run the ball, control the ball and play from ahead. Then commit fewer penalties and win the turnover battle.
That will lead to a win.
