How Trump swung the Gaza ceasefire deal

Steve Witkoff was just a spectator at the US Capitol when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress in July, an experience the real estate investor described as “epic” and “spiritual”.

Five months later, the Bronx-born businessman — with no experience of diplomacy — was in Israel as Donald Trump’s chosen Middle East envoy, cajoling and pressing Netanyahu to make concessions to end the devastating 15-month war in Gaza.

After grinding on-off talks, countless false dawns and seemingly never-ending problems, the odds appeared stacked against a breakthrough before the end of Joe Biden’s term as US president.

So it was telling that when Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in Doha finally declared that Israel and Hamas had agreed a ceasefire — enabling the release of hostages held in the besieged strip — Witkoff was present with the other mediators.

“What has changed over the last eight months? It was Trump and Witkoff. The way Trump has operated has really shown the difference,” said a person briefed on the talks.

Prime Minister Netanyahu during his meeting with Steve Witkoff
It is not known whether Steve Witkoff, right, delivered any precise threats from Trump or made promises to Benjamin Netanyahu, left, in the event of a deal © Government of Israel/Prime Minister’s Media Adviser

The structure of the deal — a multi-phased proposal ultimately leading to peace and reconstruction — was first conceived by mediators and publicly endorsed by Biden more than six months ago. But it was Trump’s imprimatur that eventually sealed the deal.

Trump had made a big issue of Middle East peace during his campaign and attacked Biden’s failure to secure a ceasefire; after the vote, he moved quickly to back his rhetoric. Witkoff, his surprise appointment as Middle East envoy, was dispatched to Qatar on November 22 — less than three weeks after his election victory.

In Doha, Witkoff met Sheikh Mohammed to get an update on the stalled negotiations and understand why Qatar — which was frustrated with the warring parties for the lack of progress in talks as well as the criticism it was drawing for hosting Hamas — had suspended its role as a mediator.

He then flew to Tel Aviv to meet Netanyahu. It is not known whether Witkoff delivered any precise threats from Trump or made promises to Israel in the event of a deal — both trademarks of Trump diplomacy, which is unpredictable and transactional by equal measure.

But the impact was clear: a day later, on November 24, Israel’s top negotiator David Barnea, head of the Mossad spy agency, was travelling to meet Sheikh Mohammed in Vienna.

“That’s when things kick-started, and it was a completely different willingness from the Israeli side,” said the person briefed on the talks.

Witkoff, a close friend of Trump who is also known to Qatari officials through his real estate business, had suddenly become the weathermaker in an unlikely negotiating team led by Biden’s top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk.

In directing their envoys to co-ordinate, Biden and Trump both temporarily put aside their fierce personal and political rivalry — a small miracle in its own right.

Their challenge was clear. Netanyahu spent much of the last year running circles around Biden’s mediators, several times coming close to a deal before introducing new terms, such as fresh demands including that Israeli troops should remain in the Philadelphi corridor, a slither of territory that runs along the Gazan-Egyptian border.

Even some Israeli security officials accused Netanyahu of blocking the process, but the Biden administration, at least in public, largely echoed Israel in blaming Hamas for the failure of the talks.

By this point Israel had largely completed its battlefield objectives against Hamas: the militant group’s military capacity was shattered and Israel had assassinated virtually all the group’s top leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 2023 attack.

Biden’s team had long concluded there would be no deal as long as Sinwar was alive. But even after Israel assassinated him in October, the Gaza talks were still stuck. Netanyahu was publicly insisting he would never agree a permanent ceasefire in Gaza or withdraw Israeli troops from the besieged strip — and there was no sign of him budging.

Trump’s election win jolted the Gaza talks and created a new reality: any deal agreed by Biden would be implemented by Trump.

In early December, Trump made it clear he wanted the conflict over by the time he took office in January, posting on his Truth Social platform: “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025 . . . there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.” The post came shortly after Trump dined at his Mar-a-Lago club with Netanyahu’s wife Sara and his son Yair.

By mid-December, Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan and McGurk travelled to Israel to make a final push to resuscitate the Gaza ceasefire-for-hostage talks.

There were suspicions Netanyahu would wait to deliver a win to Trump, rather than the lame-duck Biden presidency. The Israeli PM also faced constant pressure from far-right allies who have threatened to leave his governing coalition if he agreed to a deal with Hamas or “surrendered” to the Palestinians — a factor he was still struggling to manage after the deal was announced.

But people briefed on the talks said Witkoff was at several points unwilling to tolerate the discussions languishing. With Trump’s backing, he was direct with Netanyahu about what needed to happen and offered assurances of strong US support for Israel, the people said.

“He gives us a lot of authority to speak on his behalf, and he exhorts us to speak emphatically. And emphatically means: ‘You better do this’,” Witkoff told reporters in Palm Beach last week.

People walk past posters of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7 2023 attack by Hamas
The first hostages should be released on Sunday, the day before Trump’s January 20 inauguration © Ammar Awad/Reuters

McGurk returned to the region in early January shortly after Hamas made a key concession: it agreed to a list of some 34 hostages to be released during the first phase of the deal, one senior US administration official said.

But again the momentum in talks began to fade. Witkoff flew back to Doha to meet Sheikh Mohammed at the end of last week to discuss the hold-ups, and agreed that Witkoff would push the Israelis while Qatar pressed Hamas.

With the agreement of McGurk, Witkoff then travelled back to Israel to meet Netanyahu — an unscheduled trip during Shabbat, the Jewish day of rest.

Next Witkoff joined McGurk and Barnea, Israel’s top negotiator, in Doha, where they remained until the deal was finalised. The talks took place in Sheikh Mohammed’s office or residence, often running late into the night.

At points Hamas’s negotiators were present in the same building, just one floor below.

Many in the Arab world and beyond believed Biden repeatedly failed to use his leverage over Netanyahu to agree a deal or rein in Israel’s ferocious offensive in Gaza as he staunchly stood by the Jewish state.

When Witkoff engaged, by contrast, the Israelis seemed more biddable. “He operated with this as though he was trying to get a business deal through,” the person briefed on the talks said. “He put the right pressure. There’s a feeling that when he met the Israelis, there was progress.”

People celebrate along a street in Khan Yunis
Thousands of Gazans celebrate along a street in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, as the news of a ceasefire spreads © Bashar Taleb/AFP/Getty Images

At first McGurk and Witkoff were in touch and simply briefing each other. But in the final stages of talks, they decided it would make sense for Witkoff to join the negotiations directly.

They knew any breakthrough would depend on Netanyahu accepting critical points that had previously derailed a deal, such as where Israeli forces in Gaza would redeploy.

That was where Witkoff played his part, backed by Trump’s political clout. Netanyahu was aware that during his first term, Trump pushed through a string of pro-Israeli policies that upended years of US policy in the Middle East.

“The only difference is Trump. Netanyahu does want to align with Trump . . . [the Americans] made clear that they want quiet here,” said another person familiar with the talks.

Trump’s win also galvanised Qatar and Egypt to put fresh pressure on Hamas.

“The Trump effect was not only on Bibi, it was also on Qatar and Egypt,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East peace negotiator now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They were leaning on Hamas because they both have a stake in showing Trump: ‘Look what we did’.”

The ceasefire is now due to take effect on Sunday, when the first hostages should be released — the day before Trump’s January 20 inauguration.

Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv

Cartography by Aditi Bhandari

Related Posts

Buffett seeks to reassure shareholders over record cash pile

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter. Warren Buffett has sought to reassure Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that…

Read more

Economic partnership will protect the Ukrainian people and the US taxpayer

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world The writer is US Treasury secretary While much…

Read more

The anti-woke overcorrection is here

Stay informed with free updates Simply sign up to the Life & Arts myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox. The thing about zealots, conspiracists, monomaniacs and cranks is…

Read more

Trump considers tariffs to counter digital services taxes on Big Tech

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world Donald Trump is considering tariffs on countries that…

Read more

Hackers steal $1.5bn from crypto exchange Bybit in biggest-ever heist

Stay informed with free updates Simply sign up to the Cryptocurrencies myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox. Hackers stole about $1.5bn in crypto tokens from Bybit, in a…

Read more

UK consumers turn to saving as poor economic outlook saps confidence

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter. UK households are prioritising saving over spending amid concerns about…

Read more

Leave a Reply