A betting win that doesn’t involve any sweating throughout the duration is the best type of victory to achieve, and that’s exactly what we got last night in our cozy Red Sox-Orioles under, thanks to Garrett Crochet.
For tonight, we’re taking a rare break from over/unders to place a moneyline wager. On this short five-game slate, there’s one that’s too good to pass up.
That comes in Milwaukee, where the Reds and Brewers open a four-game series. For whatever reason, the home side is favored (-120) by the oddsmakers—albeit barely.
Still, it’s a baffling decision to list the Brewers as favorites. Just look at the pitching matchup.
Former New York Yankee Nestor Cortes gets the ball for his second start as a Brewer. It would be hard to duplicate something as nightmarish as what he put on display in his team debut last week on the road at Yankee Stadium.
Cortes gave up home runs on each of his first three pitches of the game—Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge all took him deep. Yes, you read that right: three pitches, three home runs.
By the end of his outing, the eighth-year southpaw had been tagged for eight runs in just two innings, including five home runs. This was a possible trend coming into the season after Cortes allowed a career-high 24 long balls a year ago.
Another concerning stat from Cortes’ 2024 season: Opponents hit .245 against him, the highest mark he has registered since becoming a full-time starter.
The signs are there that Cortes is in for a tough season—let alone a tough start to it—and for his second assignment, he’ll face an opponent that may not let him settle in due to their aggressive baserunning. The Reds were one of three teams in the majors last year to record at least 200 stolen bases, and they boast the league’s top baserunner in that category, Elly De La Cruz.
But this bet hinges more on the other starter in this matchup, Nick Lodolo.
The 27-year-old was a breakout candidate coming into the season, and he flashed that potential in his first start of the year last weekend, going six strong innings against a San Francisco Giants lineup that is averaging five runs per game early on.
As I noted in his first outing, Lodolo was actually tremendous last year despite finishing with a 4.76 ERA. Before experiencing blister and finger issues, he had a 2.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP entering July and arguably should have been an All-Star.
The TCU product has faced the Brewers four times since debuting in the majors three years ago. In those games, he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 24 innings while notching 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Additionally, Lodolo may benefit from pitching on the road in this one. He has been considerably better away from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Expect Lodolo to continue his ascent. Cincinnati should be able to supply him with enough run support, and that will be that.
Pick: Reds ML (EV, DraftKings)
2025 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 5-2-1, +2.65 units
Over/Unders: 4-2-1
Props: 1-0
MLs: 0-0
Yesterday’s Result: Red Sox-Orioles Under 8 (WIN)
Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.
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