After much media speculation, the Congress party has finally announced its candidates for the constituencies of Amethi and Raebareli on the last day of nomination. This brings a mix of good and bad news for the Congress cadre and supporters in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has opted to contest from Raebareli, while Gandhi family friend Kishori Lal Sharma will vie for the Amethi seat. Priyanka Gandhi has chosen not to contest and instead focus on campaigning nationwide.

There was considerable pressure from the local UP unit on the Gandhi siblings to contest from both constituencies. The fear was that not contesting from Amethi might give Smriti Irani an easy win for the seat.

A Disappointment For Congress Cadre

Amethi and Raebareli have been strongholds of the Congress and the Gandhi family. Not contesting it is a tacit acknowledgement that Amethi has ceased to be a safe bet.

The local unit had hoped that both siblings contesting would boost the chances in the other 15 seats where Congress is allied with the Samajwadi Party (SP). However, their decision has left some Congress workers disheartened.

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Credit must be given to Kishori Lal Sharma, a local candidate who is well-acquainted with the constituency and enjoys popularity as a Brahmin, aligning with the party’s strategy to regain traditional support from upper castes, tribals, Dalits, and Muslims.

Politically, this move has provided ammunition to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to target the Gandhi family and the Congress. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already criticised this move by the Congress, using it as fodder for attacks during election rallies. Union Home Minister Amit Shah also questioned Rahul Gandhi’s numerous launches, highlighting his shifts from Amethi to Wayanad, and now Raebareli.

What The Numbers Indicated

Rahul Gandhi has represented the Amethi seat since 2004, losing it only in 2019 to Smriti Irani. He currently represents Kerala’s Wayanad constituency.

According to NDTV Data Centre, the Congress has won Amethi 15 out of 18 times and Raebareli 17 out of 20 times. The latter, traditionally held by Sonia Gandhi, is considered the pocket borough of the Gandhi-Nehru family.

The Congress Party’s organisation in Raebareli is stronger compared to Amethi. The BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh is not seen as a major contender against Rahul here.

In terms of electoral performance, Rahul Gandhi had a 46% vote share in Amethi in 2014, which dropped to 43% in 2019. In Raebareli, Sonia Gandhi consistently secured a 55-56% vote share in recent elections.

Read | Raebareli Is Congress’s Safe Seat, Except It Handed Defeat To A PM Once

In the 2022 assembly elections, the SP and its allies won four out of five seats, while in Amethi, the BJP secured three and the SP two seats. Given the Congress’s alliance with the SP now, Raebareli appears to be a safer bet.

If Rahul had contested from Amethi and lost again, it would have weakened his position within the Congress Party. This is likely why Rahul opted for a safer seat, making a practical rather than an emotional decision. Additionally, he has been out of touch with the constituency.

However, Priyanka could have contested from Amethi to challenge Smriti, which could have kept the party cadre motivated and sent a strong message across the state and the Hindi heartland.

A Move That Backfired?

Congress may be hoping to convey a message that any party cadre or worker can secure a party ticket, aiming to deflect allegations of dynasty politics. Some news reports suggest that Rahul wishes to retain the Wayanad seat due to the warm reception from voters and his successful election there in 2019. If he were to win, he could vacate the seat, leading to a by-poll battle for Priyanka.

However, the BJP has won SP stronghold seats like Rampur and Azamgarh in by-polls, a fact Congress needs to consider carefully. If Priyanka is eventually pitched to represent the constituency, why not field her in this election itself instead of waiting for a by-poll? Had she been fielded from Raebareli, the BJP might not have had the ammunition to attack Rahul with charges like “bhago mat” by Modi and “re-launch” by Shah.

Every strategic move has its pros and cons. Whether this decision turns out to be a masterstroke or a misstep will only be revealed after the poll results on June 4.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.