Bill Gates has been reflecting a lot on AI lately, and the process has triggered a stark awakening. Once a staunch AI optimist, the Microsoft cofounder is now deeply pessimistic about what AI means for our collective future.
Having been conspicuously quiet on AI issues recently, Gates is back with a nearly 6,000-word essay seeking to reclaim a central role in shaping the technology globally. Titled “The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical,†Gates warns the world is not remotely ready for what is coming. Worse still, he notes, “we are not preparing for it.â€
Gates attempts to chart a path forward, but the essay largely treads familiar ground, identifying deeply entrenched, systemic hurdles familiar in matters of global governance while offering little in the way of novel solutions. The result is a bleak departure from the hopeful excitement about AI present in the billionaire's 2023 essay on the matter, though Gates insists it is not too late “to ensure that the good outweighs the bad.â€
Here are some of the main takeaways from Gates' essay:
A transition bigger — and faster — than the world realizes
“AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice,†Gates said, predicting that “the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history.†He said many people underestimate the scale of the impact due to “misleading†comparisons to past innovations like PCs and performance-related issues with current models that are “fixed quickly.â€
“This time really is different,†he said, adding that “if someone had a credible plan for slowing down AI advances globally, I would likely support it.â€
Tax robots and reserve some jobs for humans
Gates is very concerned about AI's impact on jobs, predicting widespread, permanent unemployment and significant social upheaval. “Many jobs will disappear forever,†he warned, with white- and blue-collar jobs both at risk of replacement.
Gates' labor anxieties — which he repeatedly returns to throughout his essay — leads him to issue rare, concrete policy proposals: tax AI tokens and robots to disincentivize companies from replacing human staff and bolster social funds, and reserve specific jobs for people, a domain he calls “Human Reserved.â€
Political leaders need to act now “before unemployment rises sharply, communities are hurting, and public trust has eroded,†Gates said.
Build an international organization
Existing institutions are woefully inadequate for the “monumental task†of managing AI, Gates said. Because AI is deeply cross-sectional in nature — simultaneously affecting areas like tax, labor, health, national security, and education — traditional institutions simply can't see the full picture. To bridge this gap, Gates said countries will need dedicated bodies “that can set priorities across government agencies†and to make sure every risk is accounted for.
In parallel, Gates said the international community must build a global organization to manage “risks that cross borders,†though he did not define what those risks may be. Gates does not offer concrete ideas as to what such an organization would look like, but said “it will be unlike any other institution we have ever created†and could potentially be inspired by international nuclear, aviation, and ozone layer-protecting agreements.
Gates acknowledged such a framework would require US-China cooperation, though didn't outline a mechanism for achieving this. “We do not have the luxury of moving slowly,†he said, urging countries to begin setting up the international organization “now.â€
No longer sitting on the sidelines
Considering his legendary profile in the tech world, not to mention philanthropy, Gates has been relatively absent from public discussions about AI. It's possible that at least some of this is due to the billionaire's associations with Jeffrey Epstein, something he has described as a “huge mistake†and hopes does not overshadow his work in areas like global health and AI.
This essay appears to mark an end to Gates staying quiet when it comes to the future of AI. He vowed to use his time and influence “to get AI and equity higher on the public agenda†and raise the issue with lawmakers whenever he visits Washington, DC, or meets world leaders.
He also shares more of his own ideas in the area. There are several moments in the essay where Gates gestures towards ideas he says he will revisit soon, including “ideas for making sure that AI's benefits outweigh the harm it causes†and details about how the Gates Foundation is leveraging AI.
